Friday, November 7, 2008
Late PM Nov 7
It has been a tough day, my Timer Trac signal is closing out longs on my ST signal and will short the AM NAV Monday, not today as I had previously thought. Gold stocks should rally into early Monday, but also look weak.
Nov 7 PM Post
My thinking now is concerned about the e-wave formation on the hourly chart for the stock market. It looks like an irregular bearish flat forming. My new Timer Trac trade will exit the stock market long at the RYDEX close today and go short. The daily is on a strong sell signal suggesting we may be seeing a false -b- wave here today. We may re-enter to the long side Monday or Tuesday. The 4 day cycle can run 3. The 8 day can run 10 days and we may be looking at a lower low in the next 2 days.
The full moon due Thursday next week may be the 13 week cycle top and would count 7 days off the Tuesday top, close enough to the expected 8 days top to top and 4 days from today.
Today looks like an inside day within the previous dark candle and we had no follow through. That really bothers me. Another thing is the SPX P/C ratio divided by the OEX P/C ratio which is at .44. The OEX players are buying puts 4.12/1 over calls and they tend to be very smart players.
No new signals for the XAU/GDX as I remain neutral there for now.
My thinking is for more down work ahead in the stock market and a possible test of the 850 SPX level.
The full moon due Thursday next week may be the 13 week cycle top and would count 7 days off the Tuesday top, close enough to the expected 8 days top to top and 4 days from today.
Today looks like an inside day within the previous dark candle and we had no follow through. That really bothers me. Another thing is the SPX P/C ratio divided by the OEX P/C ratio which is at .44. The OEX players are buying puts 4.12/1 over calls and they tend to be very smart players.
No new signals for the XAU/GDX as I remain neutral there for now.
My thinking is for more down work ahead in the stock market and a possible test of the 850 SPX level.
Nov 7 AM Post Pre- Market
My Timer Trac signal negated a long on the gold stocks on the long term LT GDX/XAU and ST GDX/XAU today, but covers the short position on open for the ST. We are in cash for gold stocks because of the overbought level on the daily and sell signal on the 4 hour. My thinking is we see an important low between Nov 13 and 17 there and I am content to wait for now for the expected large rally into the third week of Dec based on the 8 year cycle and seasonal factors.
My Timer Trac signal for the stock market index fund is covering shorts initiated early on Oct 29 (too soon, my goof) for both the LT and ST models and will close out for an expected profit on the RYDEX AM NAV trade portal at 10:30 EST Friday Nov 7. We have initiated a long at the RYDEX AM portal today for both the ST and LT models for an expected rally into perhaps Nov 11 next week.
The stock market 13 week cycle top is due late Nov 10. The 4 day cycle looks for Monday late +/- 1 day. A move to the 1020's SPX looks likely and then more sell-off is expected into the next expected low due around Nov 18/19.
The LT model is trading more often due to the volatility.
My Timer Trac signal for the stock market index fund is covering shorts initiated early on Oct 29 (too soon, my goof) for both the LT and ST models and will close out for an expected profit on the RYDEX AM NAV trade portal at 10:30 EST Friday Nov 7. We have initiated a long at the RYDEX AM portal today for both the ST and LT models for an expected rally into perhaps Nov 11 next week.
The stock market 13 week cycle top is due late Nov 10. The 4 day cycle looks for Monday late +/- 1 day. A move to the 1020's SPX looks likely and then more sell-off is expected into the next expected low due around Nov 18/19.
The LT model is trading more often due to the volatility.
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