The stock market fell further today to as low as SPX 748 taking out the Oct 2002 low of 768. We are now down 12% in 2 days.
GDX held up better only falling to the low 18 area.
A strong rebound wave is likely from these levels and I have been looking for a low this week, tomorrow being day 30 of the 27 day cycle +/- 3 days.
Maximum upside is about 975 SPX and even if we get close we will reposition to the down side and get out of longs.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Nov 20, 2008 Update
The SPX fell further than I thought it would down to 776.76 this morning. The rally is now targeted for SPX 975 early Monday, the 50 day Ex M.A and down trend line off the previous tops.
GDX also fell to below 18 but is still holding up better than the stock market. A move to above 24 is likely by Monday.
A strong rally should now ensue over the course of today, Friday and early Monday for the stock market and mid session Monday for the gold mining shares.
Down side target for Dec 23 was SPX 788 and that is now moved lower to an unspecified target.
We will exit our long position on strength Friday PM NAV if we get close to the 930's. Gold mining share long will be exited Monday PM NAV if all goes according to Hoyle.
GDX also fell to below 18 but is still holding up better than the stock market. A move to above 24 is likely by Monday.
A strong rally should now ensue over the course of today, Friday and early Monday for the stock market and mid session Monday for the gold mining shares.
Down side target for Dec 23 was SPX 788 and that is now moved lower to an unspecified target.
We will exit our long position on strength Friday PM NAV if we get close to the 930's. Gold mining share long will be exited Monday PM NAV if all goes according to Hoyle.
Nov 20, 2008 Opening Comments
Yesterday I warned that the SPX could fall as low as 795. We closed at 806 down 53 points. I also warned that GDX could tag the 18.30's after early strength. We closed at 18.60 after tagging 21.00 early in the day.
The Equality of Waves Principle has us supporting 801 SPX today. Today is day 5 in the 4 day cycle suggesting a potential bottom today and a strong rally on the horizon today, Friday and even into early Monday. The outside chance for a top would be Nov 28, but the 13 week cycle top +/- 2 weeks hints we may see that expected top no later than Monday.
Targets are about 1005 SPX for this rally based on the EofWP and the expected tagging of the 50 day moving average. This is a sell the rally move coming as I see more down side into around Dec 23.
Gold stocks are holding up better than the stock market as a whole and I see a nice rally back to take out the Nov 5th top. Keep in mind that the rally I see in gold stocks looks to be a 'b' wave sucker's rally, with wave 'c' yet to come on the down side in this irregular flat bullish flag I see developing.
Yes, I see higher prices into the third week of December for gold stocks, but we have to finish out this sideways period first. Today sees support near 18.51 GDX and a strong rally is coming.
The Equality of Waves Principle has us supporting 801 SPX today. Today is day 5 in the 4 day cycle suggesting a potential bottom today and a strong rally on the horizon today, Friday and even into early Monday. The outside chance for a top would be Nov 28, but the 13 week cycle top +/- 2 weeks hints we may see that expected top no later than Monday.
Targets are about 1005 SPX for this rally based on the EofWP and the expected tagging of the 50 day moving average. This is a sell the rally move coming as I see more down side into around Dec 23.
Gold stocks are holding up better than the stock market as a whole and I see a nice rally back to take out the Nov 5th top. Keep in mind that the rally I see in gold stocks looks to be a 'b' wave sucker's rally, with wave 'c' yet to come on the down side in this irregular flat bullish flag I see developing.
Yes, I see higher prices into the third week of December for gold stocks, but we have to finish out this sideways period first. Today sees support near 18.51 GDX and a strong rally is coming.
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