The stock market looks like it has one more good day to the up side Monday. As I had been stating for over a week, I have been looking for top in this general time frame between Nov 26 and Dec 1. How high we go is uniportant at this point because we will be exiting our long position and initiating a short position at the close Monday.
Ideally, we tag the SPX down trend line near 970 and/or the 50 day moving average just below that point about 5 SPX points. This would be one heck of a rally Monday that's for sure if it happens! I think a minimum of about 940 is on the table, but I will not rule out a bigger blow-off rally.
How low we go on the next move is just conjecture at this point, but suffice it to say a move to the 680/703 level is not out of the question. When? By around Dec 15-18 would be my best guess at this time.
Next we look at the gold miners. A few weeks ago I surmised the next move would take GDX above its previous top in the 24/25 area set Nov 5. GDX is now in the 26/27 area.
The gold miners look tired here, so I will also be shorting this sector at the close Monday too, however, some of the silver shares like SSRI and especially SLW look like they might play catch up Monday so watch those shares.
As of the close Wed from Oct 23, 2008 to the present, the Profunds Precious Metals Long/Short Fund trading is +108% vs. -2% for the S&P 500 and +48% for the buy and hold XAU model. RYDEX Precious Metals buy long only model is +60% vs +48% for the buy and hold XAU model.
From Oct 20, 2008 to the present (Nov 26) the Direxion 2.5X NASDAQ 100 Bull/Bear ETF fund trading is +70% vs. -10% for the SPX buy and hold model, +57% for the RYDEX 2X bull/bear fund trading and +32% for the straight SPX bull/bear trading.
Just plug in your own trading model/vehicle and see how well you would have done!
Friday, November 28, 2008
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Nov 28, 2008 Pre Market Update
All I'm seeing suggests we are near an important short term top time-wise for the stock market. I have been looking for a top around Nov 26-Dec 1 with a leaning toward Nov 28 +/-. We have a new moon Thanksgiving and the day after, and full & new moons typically are important reversal points for the stock market, especially in choppy markets as we have seen.
My best guess is we see an important top Dec 1 and then a slide toward mid December around Dec 15 +/- 3/4 days (with more emphasis on the mid to latter dates than earlier). Same goes for gold stocks. The stock market should ideally see a new low on the next move down, but the gold stocks should hold to a higher bottom and then make a higher high around Dec 22 +/- topping out ideally for this cycle and then moving lower into mid Feb (especially after New Years).
Since late October I have favored the gold mining shares over the stock market and so far this prognostication has proven correct. A move back to the 19 area by mid Dec for GDX looks likely following a top in the 25 area (which I have been looking for) or perhaps a little higher.
I keep saying that the markets are no longer a buy and hold market, but a trader's market and nothing has changed my mind so far. This is true even for the gold mining sector (even tho' I believe we made the low in gold stocks near Oct 24/27, at least with the majors). The markets ahead look more volatile and choppy than ever and this makes trading (even over several weeks to months) a more viable option than buying and holding.
My best guess is we see an important top Dec 1 and then a slide toward mid December around Dec 15 +/- 3/4 days (with more emphasis on the mid to latter dates than earlier). Same goes for gold stocks. The stock market should ideally see a new low on the next move down, but the gold stocks should hold to a higher bottom and then make a higher high around Dec 22 +/- topping out ideally for this cycle and then moving lower into mid Feb (especially after New Years).
Since late October I have favored the gold mining shares over the stock market and so far this prognostication has proven correct. A move back to the 19 area by mid Dec for GDX looks likely following a top in the 25 area (which I have been looking for) or perhaps a little higher.
I keep saying that the markets are no longer a buy and hold market, but a trader's market and nothing has changed my mind so far. This is true even for the gold mining sector (even tho' I believe we made the low in gold stocks near Oct 24/27, at least with the majors). The markets ahead look more volatile and choppy than ever and this makes trading (even over several weeks to months) a more viable option than buying and holding.
Thanksgiving
The SPX rallied 30 points Wed to 887. We may have 2 days left until the top.
Gold stocks rallied a little and may be losing steam suggesting a 'b' wave top coming with 'c' to the downside and followed by one final wave up into about Dec 22.
Happy Thanksgiving
Gold stocks rallied a little and may be losing steam suggesting a 'b' wave top coming with 'c' to the downside and followed by one final wave up into about Dec 22.
Happy Thanksgiving
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Nov 26, 2008 Pre-Market Comments
Futures are down this morning about 17 points on the S&P 500 futures. My late day blog post suggested we may retest the down trend line today and in this case around SPX 827 +/-.
I'm still looking for top either Nov 28 or Dec 1 for the stock market as well as the gold mining sector. SPX target is about 970 maybe slightly less.
All our fund models are still long and remain so, looking for a mid day low today and higher prices into Nov 28/Dec 1.
Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!
I'm still looking for top either Nov 28 or Dec 1 for the stock market as well as the gold mining sector. SPX target is about 970 maybe slightly less.
All our fund models are still long and remain so, looking for a mid day low today and higher prices into Nov 28/Dec 1.
Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Nov 25, 2008 Mid Day Comments
We are selling off a little in both gold mining shares and the stock market today. SPX support is 827 tomorrow. We are trying to bounce off of a declining tops line and may do so again tomorrow before resuming the up trend.
We will probably exit our longs on Friday in both markets and initiate new short sales.
We will probably exit our longs on Friday in both markets and initiate new short sales.
Nov 25, 2008 Pre-Market Commentary
Futures are pointing to still more strength this morning in the stock market. An ideal set-up would be to tag the 50 day moving average within the next few days, top and then turn lower into mid to late December. That top point would be about 970 SPX.
Ideally, we should top on the 16 day cycle top due tomorrow, but that can vary some. Last cycle ran 15 days and before that 17 days. The moon is new both Thursday and Friday and that suggests a reversal point: in this case an important top Friday?
Next: how low is anybody's guess. Some are saying we hit 6000-6500 on the Dow Jones Industrials before bottoming. It remains to be seen. All I know is we make another lower low in December and then rally strongly into around mid February.
Gold stocks ran higher and then turned back from the highs late in the day. GDX tagged near to 26 before turning back. Ideally, we see the 28.90's by Monday next week and then turn lower.
While the 8 year cycle and the seasonal trend is turning up into about the third week of December for gold stocks, the lower projections for the stock market for December has me concerned for the mining sector.
As I have been saying, this is trader's market right now and not a buy and hold market even for gold mining shares. The e-wave outlook for GDX suggests we are seeing what may be an a-b-c type of rally off the Oct 24/27 bottom. If so, we may see lower prices into December along with the stock market.
We remain long right now both the stock market and the gold mining shares with our finger on the trigger. When it is time to short, the odds favor the stock market over the gold mining share sector based simply on seasonals and cycles.
Ideally, we should top on the 16 day cycle top due tomorrow, but that can vary some. Last cycle ran 15 days and before that 17 days. The moon is new both Thursday and Friday and that suggests a reversal point: in this case an important top Friday?
Next: how low is anybody's guess. Some are saying we hit 6000-6500 on the Dow Jones Industrials before bottoming. It remains to be seen. All I know is we make another lower low in December and then rally strongly into around mid February.
Gold stocks ran higher and then turned back from the highs late in the day. GDX tagged near to 26 before turning back. Ideally, we see the 28.90's by Monday next week and then turn lower.
While the 8 year cycle and the seasonal trend is turning up into about the third week of December for gold stocks, the lower projections for the stock market for December has me concerned for the mining sector.
As I have been saying, this is trader's market right now and not a buy and hold market even for gold mining shares. The e-wave outlook for GDX suggests we are seeing what may be an a-b-c type of rally off the Oct 24/27 bottom. If so, we may see lower prices into December along with the stock market.
We remain long right now both the stock market and the gold mining shares with our finger on the trigger. When it is time to short, the odds favor the stock market over the gold mining share sector based simply on seasonals and cycles.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Nov 24, 2008 Post Market Commentary
What can I say? The market rose +396 points on the Dow and nearly +52 pts on the SPX today. GDX rose nearly 7% today. Forecast still on track for a top either late this week or early the next.
Nov 24, 2008 Pre- Market Commentary
Futures are up in pre-market trading. Not much to say here except I still expect higher prices throughout the week in both gold mining shares and the stock market.
I ask everyone who reads this blog to please support it and the Sri Lanka Orphanage by becoming a My Power Mall member. It is free to join (details below) and will not only help the orphanage, but yourself included. I use to charge as much as $500 a month for my services and would hate to have to resort to that again just to support the orphanage.
I ask everyone who reads this blog to please support it and the Sri Lanka Orphanage by becoming a My Power Mall member. It is free to join (details below) and will not only help the orphanage, but yourself included. I use to charge as much as $500 a month for my services and would hate to have to resort to that again just to support the orphanage.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Nov 23, 2008 Weekend Comments
Wednesday last week I became suspicious of the late day attempted rally, but due to other circumstances was not able to change my Timer Trac long soon enough. However, my Timer Trac SPX close model is +19% vs. -19% holding since Oct 20, an impressive gain vs. loss in one month.
Also, as I had been saying buying gold mining shares vs. the stock market was a better choice. At the end of the week my XAU vs. SPX model since Oct 23 was +51.8% vs -12% for the SPX and +51.8% vs. +31% on the XAU hold model.
All models point to a short term bottom Friday and I called it perfectly Friday ahead of time with a call for an up gap followed by a rebottom down 100 points on the Dow then finishing up about 500 points on the day.
Next week looks bullish for both the stock market and gold mining shares with a possible top the day after Thanksgiving on the stock market and Dec 1 for the mining shares. The GDX target is 28/29 and the stock market into the mid 900's to around 950 +/- on the SPX.
We will likely trade out of all longs by those dates and initiate new short positions. The stock market needs to make one more lower bottom into mid/late Dec and the gold shares are iffy after the projected Dec 1 top, even tho' the 8 year cycle projects more strength into about the third week of Dec.
Also, as I had been saying buying gold mining shares vs. the stock market was a better choice. At the end of the week my XAU vs. SPX model since Oct 23 was +51.8% vs -12% for the SPX and +51.8% vs. +31% on the XAU hold model.
All models point to a short term bottom Friday and I called it perfectly Friday ahead of time with a call for an up gap followed by a rebottom down 100 points on the Dow then finishing up about 500 points on the day.
Next week looks bullish for both the stock market and gold mining shares with a possible top the day after Thanksgiving on the stock market and Dec 1 for the mining shares. The GDX target is 28/29 and the stock market into the mid 900's to around 950 +/- on the SPX.
We will likely trade out of all longs by those dates and initiate new short positions. The stock market needs to make one more lower bottom into mid/late Dec and the gold shares are iffy after the projected Dec 1 top, even tho' the 8 year cycle projects more strength into about the third week of Dec.
Friday, November 21, 2008
Nov 21, 2008 Bottom In?
I believe we just saw the bottom with the SPX down about 10-11 points after reversing the gap up earlier. This is exactly what I was looking for and is a very bullish sign based on the fractal of Oct 28, 2008. We should ideally see a top now around the end of the day Dec 1, 2008, all things being equal with an outside chance at early Dec 2, 2008. Could we top a little earlier? Sure.
Gold mining shares are exploding as gold and silver are exploding upward today. I am very bullish on this sector into just before XMAS. Backwardation and seasonal statistics are suggesting a huge explosion upward for the metals and this sector I have favored (and continue to favor) over the stock market since Oct 24. Overall, this sector looks ST bullish into Dec 2, 2008 and IT bullish into around Dec 22, 2008 and Jan 2, 2009, then IT bearish into mid February. LT cycles continue higher into at least 2010, and then 2012 after that.
Gold mining shares are exploding as gold and silver are exploding upward today. I am very bullish on this sector into just before XMAS. Backwardation and seasonal statistics are suggesting a huge explosion upward for the metals and this sector I have favored (and continue to favor) over the stock market since Oct 24. Overall, this sector looks ST bullish into Dec 2, 2008 and IT bullish into around Dec 22, 2008 and Jan 2, 2009, then IT bearish into mid February. LT cycles continue higher into at least 2010, and then 2012 after that.
Nov 21, 2008 Market Commentary
The last 2 day slide did not surprise me as I have been looking for a bottom this week (27 day cycle low due Nov. 18, +/- 3.5 days) What surprised me (and others no doubt) was the severity of the slide. Now that I believe we have seen the ST bottom (or close as we may gap up, turn around rebottom and then go higher) the next expectation is to rally strongly back to the 50 day moving average, currently just above SPX 1000 and falling.
As far as time cycles are considered the cycle we must look to would be the 16 day cycle top and that is due ideally Nov 26. Last time it ran 15 days and before that 17 days. The 16 day cycle can run 20 days and that date is Dec 3rd. The 8 day cycle tops Nov 16, but can run about 10 days and that date is Dec 1.
Seasonally, we are due for a Thanksgiving rally. E-Wave wise, I believe we have or are just about to finish wave X (wave W up, Wave X down, wave Y up) of a bearish B Wave, Wave A (a double three a-b-c x a-b-c) having finished on Oct 10 and Wave C due ideally between the second and third week of December.
The 23 week cycle ran 22 weeks into Jan 2008 (adjusting for Holidays 110 days), 25 weeks in July 2008 and now due between mid/Dec and early January. The larger 18 year cycle low is due around Jan 12, 2009. As far as the 13 week cycle top, I believe now that we saw that on Nov 4 and it came 4 days early (as it was due ideally on Nov 10).
The overall pattern of a lower low than the Oct 2002 low and an intermediate top in Oct 2007 higher than the March 2000 top (on the SPX, an apparant irregular flat)) sets us up for a huge rally to new highs into the first quarter of 2010 where Benner's Cycle is suggesting we see a top. Benner's Cycle also suggests we see a bottom around 2011. The last Benner Cycle low in this series was due in 1995 and bottomed late 1994. The next one was due 2003 and bottomed late 2002. It may be suggesting a huge down move for 2010 from near 1595/1600 toward my longstanding target of SPX 443 perhaps by July/Oct 2010.
I guess what I'm saying is : "You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet".
Oh, and on the subject of new and full moon reversals, the next new moon is due on Thanksgiving and this time looks to be a top. The last full moon was a bottom, the new moon before that a bottom and Oct 14th a top for the full moon.
My gold mining model suggested a seasonal low around the 13-21 of Nov and higher prices into the third week of Dec and maybe a final top around the first day of Jan 2009. I have liked the gold mining shares over the stock market believing we saw the low in mining shares on Oct 24/27. My IT and LT cycles in the stock market are still pointing down, but we are overdue for wave Y of B where I think it would be prudent to short again once we tag the 50 day moving average within the next 3-6 trading days, today inclusive. Dec 1, 2008 would be the ideal date for a top as I see it right now.
As far as time cycles are considered the cycle we must look to would be the 16 day cycle top and that is due ideally Nov 26. Last time it ran 15 days and before that 17 days. The 16 day cycle can run 20 days and that date is Dec 3rd. The 8 day cycle tops Nov 16, but can run about 10 days and that date is Dec 1.
Seasonally, we are due for a Thanksgiving rally. E-Wave wise, I believe we have or are just about to finish wave X (wave W up, Wave X down, wave Y up) of a bearish B Wave, Wave A (a double three a-b-c x a-b-c) having finished on Oct 10 and Wave C due ideally between the second and third week of December.
The 23 week cycle ran 22 weeks into Jan 2008 (adjusting for Holidays 110 days), 25 weeks in July 2008 and now due between mid/Dec and early January. The larger 18 year cycle low is due around Jan 12, 2009. As far as the 13 week cycle top, I believe now that we saw that on Nov 4 and it came 4 days early (as it was due ideally on Nov 10).
The overall pattern of a lower low than the Oct 2002 low and an intermediate top in Oct 2007 higher than the March 2000 top (on the SPX, an apparant irregular flat)) sets us up for a huge rally to new highs into the first quarter of 2010 where Benner's Cycle is suggesting we see a top. Benner's Cycle also suggests we see a bottom around 2011. The last Benner Cycle low in this series was due in 1995 and bottomed late 1994. The next one was due 2003 and bottomed late 2002. It may be suggesting a huge down move for 2010 from near 1595/1600 toward my longstanding target of SPX 443 perhaps by July/Oct 2010.
I guess what I'm saying is : "You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet".
Oh, and on the subject of new and full moon reversals, the next new moon is due on Thanksgiving and this time looks to be a top. The last full moon was a bottom, the new moon before that a bottom and Oct 14th a top for the full moon.
My gold mining model suggested a seasonal low around the 13-21 of Nov and higher prices into the third week of Dec and maybe a final top around the first day of Jan 2009. I have liked the gold mining shares over the stock market believing we saw the low in mining shares on Oct 24/27. My IT and LT cycles in the stock market are still pointing down, but we are overdue for wave Y of B where I think it would be prudent to short again once we tag the 50 day moving average within the next 3-6 trading days, today inclusive. Dec 1, 2008 would be the ideal date for a top as I see it right now.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Nov 20, 2008 Post Market Comments
The stock market fell further today to as low as SPX 748 taking out the Oct 2002 low of 768. We are now down 12% in 2 days.
GDX held up better only falling to the low 18 area.
A strong rebound wave is likely from these levels and I have been looking for a low this week, tomorrow being day 30 of the 27 day cycle +/- 3 days.
Maximum upside is about 975 SPX and even if we get close we will reposition to the down side and get out of longs.
GDX held up better only falling to the low 18 area.
A strong rebound wave is likely from these levels and I have been looking for a low this week, tomorrow being day 30 of the 27 day cycle +/- 3 days.
Maximum upside is about 975 SPX and even if we get close we will reposition to the down side and get out of longs.
Nov 20, 2008 Update
The SPX fell further than I thought it would down to 776.76 this morning. The rally is now targeted for SPX 975 early Monday, the 50 day Ex M.A and down trend line off the previous tops.
GDX also fell to below 18 but is still holding up better than the stock market. A move to above 24 is likely by Monday.
A strong rally should now ensue over the course of today, Friday and early Monday for the stock market and mid session Monday for the gold mining shares.
Down side target for Dec 23 was SPX 788 and that is now moved lower to an unspecified target.
We will exit our long position on strength Friday PM NAV if we get close to the 930's. Gold mining share long will be exited Monday PM NAV if all goes according to Hoyle.
GDX also fell to below 18 but is still holding up better than the stock market. A move to above 24 is likely by Monday.
A strong rally should now ensue over the course of today, Friday and early Monday for the stock market and mid session Monday for the gold mining shares.
Down side target for Dec 23 was SPX 788 and that is now moved lower to an unspecified target.
We will exit our long position on strength Friday PM NAV if we get close to the 930's. Gold mining share long will be exited Monday PM NAV if all goes according to Hoyle.
Nov 20, 2008 Opening Comments
Yesterday I warned that the SPX could fall as low as 795. We closed at 806 down 53 points. I also warned that GDX could tag the 18.30's after early strength. We closed at 18.60 after tagging 21.00 early in the day.
The Equality of Waves Principle has us supporting 801 SPX today. Today is day 5 in the 4 day cycle suggesting a potential bottom today and a strong rally on the horizon today, Friday and even into early Monday. The outside chance for a top would be Nov 28, but the 13 week cycle top +/- 2 weeks hints we may see that expected top no later than Monday.
Targets are about 1005 SPX for this rally based on the EofWP and the expected tagging of the 50 day moving average. This is a sell the rally move coming as I see more down side into around Dec 23.
Gold stocks are holding up better than the stock market as a whole and I see a nice rally back to take out the Nov 5th top. Keep in mind that the rally I see in gold stocks looks to be a 'b' wave sucker's rally, with wave 'c' yet to come on the down side in this irregular flat bullish flag I see developing.
Yes, I see higher prices into the third week of December for gold stocks, but we have to finish out this sideways period first. Today sees support near 18.51 GDX and a strong rally is coming.
The Equality of Waves Principle has us supporting 801 SPX today. Today is day 5 in the 4 day cycle suggesting a potential bottom today and a strong rally on the horizon today, Friday and even into early Monday. The outside chance for a top would be Nov 28, but the 13 week cycle top +/- 2 weeks hints we may see that expected top no later than Monday.
Targets are about 1005 SPX for this rally based on the EofWP and the expected tagging of the 50 day moving average. This is a sell the rally move coming as I see more down side into around Dec 23.
Gold stocks are holding up better than the stock market as a whole and I see a nice rally back to take out the Nov 5th top. Keep in mind that the rally I see in gold stocks looks to be a 'b' wave sucker's rally, with wave 'c' yet to come on the down side in this irregular flat bullish flag I see developing.
Yes, I see higher prices into the third week of December for gold stocks, but we have to finish out this sideways period first. Today sees support near 18.51 GDX and a strong rally is coming.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Mother of All Gold Short Squeezes?
Click on the title to read more about a potential short squeeze in gold on the horizon. Nov 28, 2008 is the date in which that short squeeze may begin. That date should be the 5 week low in mining shares.
My cycle work suggests a top in the gold mining shares around Dec 21. I am looking for a ST top this week and a fall next week, but that pull back should set us up for a nice rally into about the third week of December. The waves are now confirming this.
My cycle work suggests a top in the gold mining shares around Dec 21. I am looking for a ST top this week and a fall next week, but that pull back should set us up for a nice rally into about the third week of December. The waves are now confirming this.
Nov 19, 2008 Market Forecast
Yesterday on my end of day post I warned that we could still go lower today. The futures are pointing down near the open. B waves can take out the previous low and that is 820 SPX. The 4 day cycle can run as much as 5 days. Today is day 16 since Oct 28. The 27 day cycle can run 30, so a low this week looks like it is in the cards.
The e-wave look has us in a final a-b-c wave off the late Friday top, with 'b' finishing late yesterday, and 'c' due today. Maximum downside is 795 SPX and then a strong rally should ensue (I'm not saying we go that low but...).
I'm still looking for a move back to the 50 day moving average before we again turn lower into December.
GDX looks higher on the open as it follows the stock market strength of late yesterday (on a negative A/D...not good) and then should turn lower again to the 18.30's today. I'm still looking for the 25 area soon for GDX.
All in all I don't think we are through going down yet, but a big turn is on the horizon.
The e-wave look has us in a final a-b-c wave off the late Friday top, with 'b' finishing late yesterday, and 'c' due today. Maximum downside is 795 SPX and then a strong rally should ensue (I'm not saying we go that low but...).
I'm still looking for a move back to the 50 day moving average before we again turn lower into December.
GDX looks higher on the open as it follows the stock market strength of late yesterday (on a negative A/D...not good) and then should turn lower again to the 18.30's today. I'm still looking for the 25 area soon for GDX.
All in all I don't think we are through going down yet, but a big turn is on the horizon.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Nov 18, 2008 Closing Comments
We did indeed try to tag the SPX 820 area albeit a bit higher today (826.86) in wave 'b' as I had forecasted. Now we see a strong rally to the SPX 1020's ideally. We closed +151 on the Dow and +8 on the SPX near 858/859.
Tomorrow could be a huge up day in the markets and a top could occur on Thursday, so we need to be aware of that.
Likewise with the gold mining shares, looking for a slightly higher high than Nov 5 on the GDX to the $25 area.
One caveat: tomorrow is the 4 day cycle low. The current candlestick formation also looks suspicious to me. Could be we see a Wed/Fri type of rally. It remains to be seen. We remain long the stock market and gold mining shares, but will exit on strength likely over the next 2-3 days.
Tomorrow could be a huge up day in the markets and a top could occur on Thursday, so we need to be aware of that.
Likewise with the gold mining shares, looking for a slightly higher high than Nov 5 on the GDX to the $25 area.
One caveat: tomorrow is the 4 day cycle low. The current candlestick formation also looks suspicious to me. Could be we see a Wed/Fri type of rally. It remains to be seen. We remain long the stock market and gold mining shares, but will exit on strength likely over the next 2-3 days.
Nov 18, 2008 Commentary
Today is the exact 27 day cycle low. The SPX looks like it will try and test the 820 Thursday low today (with a higher "b" wave low, ideally). The set up is there for a decent rally in the days ahead as the e-wave configuration and cycles are bullish over the short term. We should see a rally into as early as Thursday to as late as Monday based on the 16 day cycle top combined with the 13 week cycle top +/- 2 weeks. The ideal 4 day cycle tops Thursday +/- one day.
Gold stocks should see a double top in this time fame and GDX should tag the 24/25 area in the coming days. This would set up another pull back before launching higher into late December. I was having doubts about this scenario, but it looks likely at this juncture that gold stocks and the stock market will decouple.
We are ST bullish, IT and LT bearish on the stock market looking for a low in late December. We are ST, IT and LT bullish on the mining sector looking for a ST top soon, and an IT top in late December.
Gold stocks should see a double top in this time fame and GDX should tag the 24/25 area in the coming days. This would set up another pull back before launching higher into late December. I was having doubts about this scenario, but it looks likely at this juncture that gold stocks and the stock market will decouple.
We are ST bullish, IT and LT bearish on the stock market looking for a low in late December. We are ST, IT and LT bullish on the mining sector looking for a ST top soon, and an IT top in late December.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Gerald Celente: Future Predictions Match What I See
Gerald Celente: The man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash and the fall of the Soviet Union is now forecasting revolution in America, food riots and tax rebellions - all within four years, while cautioning that putting food on the table will be a more pressing concern than buying Christmas gifts by 2012.Gerald Celente, the CEO of Trends Research Institute, is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events, which will send a chill down your spine considering what he told Fox News this week.
Celente says that by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts.“We’re going to see the end of the retail Christmas….we’re going to see a fundamental shift take place….putting food on the table is going to be more important that putting gifts under the Christmas tree,” said Celente, adding that the situation would be “worse than the great depression”.“
America’s going to go through a transition the likes of which no one is prepared for,” said Celente, noting that people’s refusal to acknowledge that America was even in a recession highlights how big a problem denial is in being ready for the true scale of the crisis.Celente, who successfully predicted the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis, the subprime mortgage collapse and the massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar, told UPI in November last year that the following year would be known as “The Panic of 2008,” adding that “giants (would) tumble to their deaths,” which is exactly what we have witnessed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and others.
He also said that the dollar would eventually be devalued by as much as 90 per cent.The consequence of what we have seen unfold this year would lead to a lowering in living standards, Celente predicted a year ago, which is also being borne out by plummeting retail sales figures.The prospect of revolution was a concept echoed by a British Ministry of Defence report last year, which predicted that within 30 years, the growing gap between the super rich and the middle class, along with an urban underclass threatening social order would mean, “The world’s middle classes might unite, using access to knowledge, resources and skills to shape transnational processes in their own class interest,” and that, “The middle classes could become a revolutionary class.”
“When CNN wants to know about the Top Trends, we ask Gerald Celente.”— CNN Headline News
"A network of 25 experts whose range of specialties would rival many university faculties.”— The Economist
"Gerald Celente has a knack for getting the zeitgeist right.”— USA Today
“There’s not a better trend forecaster than Gerald Celente. The man knows what he’s talking about.”- CNBC
“Those who take their predictions seriously … consider the Trends Research Institute.”— The Wall Street Journal
“Gerald Celente is always ahead of the curve on trends and uncannily on the mark … he’s one of the most accurate forecasters around.”— The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
“Mr. Celente tracks the world’s social, economic and business trends for corporate clients.”— The New York Times“Mr. Celente is a very intelligent guy. We are able to learn about trends from an authority.”— 48 Hours, CBS News
http://www.infowars.com/?p=5938
Celente says that by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts.“We’re going to see the end of the retail Christmas….we’re going to see a fundamental shift take place….putting food on the table is going to be more important that putting gifts under the Christmas tree,” said Celente, adding that the situation would be “worse than the great depression”.“
America’s going to go through a transition the likes of which no one is prepared for,” said Celente, noting that people’s refusal to acknowledge that America was even in a recession highlights how big a problem denial is in being ready for the true scale of the crisis.Celente, who successfully predicted the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis, the subprime mortgage collapse and the massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar, told UPI in November last year that the following year would be known as “The Panic of 2008,” adding that “giants (would) tumble to their deaths,” which is exactly what we have witnessed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and others.
He also said that the dollar would eventually be devalued by as much as 90 per cent.The consequence of what we have seen unfold this year would lead to a lowering in living standards, Celente predicted a year ago, which is also being borne out by plummeting retail sales figures.The prospect of revolution was a concept echoed by a British Ministry of Defence report last year, which predicted that within 30 years, the growing gap between the super rich and the middle class, along with an urban underclass threatening social order would mean, “The world’s middle classes might unite, using access to knowledge, resources and skills to shape transnational processes in their own class interest,” and that, “The middle classes could become a revolutionary class.”
“When CNN wants to know about the Top Trends, we ask Gerald Celente.”— CNN Headline News
"A network of 25 experts whose range of specialties would rival many university faculties.”— The Economist
"Gerald Celente has a knack for getting the zeitgeist right.”— USA Today
“There’s not a better trend forecaster than Gerald Celente. The man knows what he’s talking about.”- CNBC
“Those who take their predictions seriously … consider the Trends Research Institute.”— The Wall Street Journal
“Gerald Celente is always ahead of the curve on trends and uncannily on the mark … he’s one of the most accurate forecasters around.”— The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
“Mr. Celente tracks the world’s social, economic and business trends for corporate clients.”— The New York Times“Mr. Celente is a very intelligent guy. We are able to learn about trends from an authority.”— 48 Hours, CBS News
http://www.infowars.com/?p=5938
Nov 17, 2008 Week Ahead
The futures are down in pre-market trading as we complete the powerful bull flag in what looks like a wave 'b' of Y of a larger B, not a wave 2 as some suggest (tho' I could be wrong) as the pull back is deeper than most wave 2's typically. A move back to tag the falling 50 day moving average (currently around SPX 1040/50) is in the cards in the coming days.
The 4/12 day cycle suggests a minimum date of Thursday Nov 20th for a top. The bigger 16 day cycle (+/- 4 market days) tops out about Wednesday next week (just before Thanksgiving), so we should see selling more after Thanksgiving than before I would think. The larger 13 week cycle top +/- 2 weeks tops out no later than Nov 24.
A move back to the 23 week cycle low is projected for about Dec 23 and targets remain around 788/793 SPX with higher prices into mid Feb expected after that.
Recap: We remain long the stock market expecting a top in the next week or 2 and then further weakness into just before Xmas. The gold mining shares will probably have strength into around Thanksgiving or just before. While the seasonal trend combined with the 8 year cycle in gold mining shares looks strong into about the third week of December, the stock market low expected around that time and tax selling may abate the normal seasonal cycles this time around. It remains to be seen.
Gold mining shares remain a trader's market for now, but with longer time projections favoring this sector over the stock market in general (which as I have stated before) has projections to SPX 443 in the Jul/Oct 2010 and Mar/May 2011 time frames.
The 4/12 day cycle suggests a minimum date of Thursday Nov 20th for a top. The bigger 16 day cycle (+/- 4 market days) tops out about Wednesday next week (just before Thanksgiving), so we should see selling more after Thanksgiving than before I would think. The larger 13 week cycle top +/- 2 weeks tops out no later than Nov 24.
A move back to the 23 week cycle low is projected for about Dec 23 and targets remain around 788/793 SPX with higher prices into mid Feb expected after that.
Recap: We remain long the stock market expecting a top in the next week or 2 and then further weakness into just before Xmas. The gold mining shares will probably have strength into around Thanksgiving or just before. While the seasonal trend combined with the 8 year cycle in gold mining shares looks strong into about the third week of December, the stock market low expected around that time and tax selling may abate the normal seasonal cycles this time around. It remains to be seen.
Gold mining shares remain a trader's market for now, but with longer time projections favoring this sector over the stock market in general (which as I have stated before) has projections to SPX 443 in the Jul/Oct 2010 and Mar/May 2011 time frames.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Gold Mining & Stock Market Performance to date
Our fast Super GDX Mining Share portfolio since Oct 23, 2008 matching the XAU perfectly is +37% vs +18% for the index; Profund mining bull/bear +51%, RYDEX mining long only +33%. The slower GDX model is XAU trade vs. XAU hold +32% vs. +18% ;Profund bull/bear +47%; RYDEX long only +29%.
The stock market model fast swing trade model since Oct 20, 2008 is SPX trade bull/bear vs. SPX hold +30% vs. -11%. Profunds bull/bear is +47% vs. -11%; RYDEX 2X bull/bear is +29% vs. -11%, Direxion Nasdaq 100 bull/bear ETF 2.5X is +71% vs. -11%.
The same is true for the IT model which has traded more often due to the volatilty.
The Direxion NASDAQ 100 ETF 2.5X bull/bear was +95% on Thursday not +121% as I had erroneously reported.
These are as of the close of the day Friday.
The stock market model fast swing trade model since Oct 20, 2008 is SPX trade bull/bear vs. SPX hold +30% vs. -11%. Profunds bull/bear is +47% vs. -11%; RYDEX 2X bull/bear is +29% vs. -11%, Direxion Nasdaq 100 bull/bear ETF 2.5X is +71% vs. -11%.
The same is true for the IT model which has traded more often due to the volatilty.
The Direxion NASDAQ 100 ETF 2.5X bull/bear was +95% on Thursday not +121% as I had erroneously reported.
These are as of the close of the day Friday.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Nov 15 Weekend Report
I'm writing this blog early because I need to go out this weekend and raise money for the Child Soldiers of Sri Lanka.
The stock market rallied off the 5 week cycle low on day 24 Thursday on the full moon. Last time it topped on a full moon (Oct 14) and bottomed on the new moon (Oct 28). We made new lows on the S&P 500 for the year at 820 and then rallied strongly to 911 in what is known as a key reversal. Early today the market sold off sharply and then recovered up until about an hour before the close and then dramatically sold off into the close. This pattern is known as a bullish irregular flat flag. There is support on the SPX near 860 near the .618 retracement and last impulse wave up forMonday.
Our fund model took a hit for the first time since October being down about 10 to 12% on the 2.5X funds. We continue to hold on the buy side and see higher prices ahead on all models including gold mining.
Today was the 4/8 day cycle top and sure enough we topped late in the day and fell back. The next minor cycle top is due near Thursday next week +/- 1 day. After that a final top should ideally occur around Thanksgiving. I say ideally because lately the market has been skipping on the 12 day cycle and not the 8 or 16 as is normal. The 16 day cycle top can come as early as 12 or as late as 20.
We are fast approaching another bear market top soon that should lead us down into the 23 week cycle low due approximately around Dec 23rd. I have targets of 788 to 793 SPX. The upside could be anywhere between 1024 and 1064/1072. The 50 day average is likely to be tagged/ or taken out on this next move and it is just under 1050 right now and falling.
Once the 23 week cycle low comes in, we should see a nice rally into mid February. Overall its hard to say how far the markets will bounce back, but the cycles are saying a top in around March/April 2010 and then a hard fall down to 443 SPX. We could conceivably see a move back to new highs before that time, but it remains to be seen and this market should be viewed as a trader's market only.
The gold and silver mining shares have the best potential going forward and I believe the lows seen around Oct 24/27 will not be taken out, at least not in my lifetime. They too should be traded for most of next year until Nov 2009 where it should be a buy and hold market until an expected IT top there around late May/early June 2010.
The stock market rallied off the 5 week cycle low on day 24 Thursday on the full moon. Last time it topped on a full moon (Oct 14) and bottomed on the new moon (Oct 28). We made new lows on the S&P 500 for the year at 820 and then rallied strongly to 911 in what is known as a key reversal. Early today the market sold off sharply and then recovered up until about an hour before the close and then dramatically sold off into the close. This pattern is known as a bullish irregular flat flag. There is support on the SPX near 860 near the .618 retracement and last impulse wave up forMonday.
Our fund model took a hit for the first time since October being down about 10 to 12% on the 2.5X funds. We continue to hold on the buy side and see higher prices ahead on all models including gold mining.
Today was the 4/8 day cycle top and sure enough we topped late in the day and fell back. The next minor cycle top is due near Thursday next week +/- 1 day. After that a final top should ideally occur around Thanksgiving. I say ideally because lately the market has been skipping on the 12 day cycle and not the 8 or 16 as is normal. The 16 day cycle top can come as early as 12 or as late as 20.
We are fast approaching another bear market top soon that should lead us down into the 23 week cycle low due approximately around Dec 23rd. I have targets of 788 to 793 SPX. The upside could be anywhere between 1024 and 1064/1072. The 50 day average is likely to be tagged/ or taken out on this next move and it is just under 1050 right now and falling.
Once the 23 week cycle low comes in, we should see a nice rally into mid February. Overall its hard to say how far the markets will bounce back, but the cycles are saying a top in around March/April 2010 and then a hard fall down to 443 SPX. We could conceivably see a move back to new highs before that time, but it remains to be seen and this market should be viewed as a trader's market only.
The gold and silver mining shares have the best potential going forward and I believe the lows seen around Oct 24/27 will not be taken out, at least not in my lifetime. They too should be traded for most of next year until Nov 2009 where it should be a buy and hold market until an expected IT top there around late May/early June 2010.
Gold Mining Timer
Our VST/ST fast Gold Mining trading model is +53% since Oct 23, 2008 and the slower ST/IT model is +50% since the same date based on Profunds gold mining bull/bear funds.
Nov 14 Pre-Market Update
Looks like a little selling on the open. The 4 day cycle +/- one day is due to top this morning. The larger 8 day cycle is due to top later today +/- 2 days. The larger 16 day cycle is due to top around Thanksgiving. I was looking for an 800+ point Dow rally yesterday and boy did we get it off the bottom!
Gold looks strong today. We are long in all models including gold mining shares since the the PM NAV Wednesday close. Our Direxion ETF NASDAQ 100 bull/bear 2.5x fund was +76% as of the close Wednesday (since Oct 20, 2008). Yesterday's push higher puts that closer to +121% I believe! It has yet to be verified by Timer Trac as they have not yet updated.
Any selling should be bought, and I see nothing but higher prices ahead for now. The daily MOM indicators did not qualify the run down to SPX 820 suggesting a nice run here is likely into the end of the month.
What would make me change my mind? If we went up too fast here over the next day or 2 and hit the 980+ level too quickly. That might make me rethink the timeframe.
Gold looks strong today. We are long in all models including gold mining shares since the the PM NAV Wednesday close. Our Direxion ETF NASDAQ 100 bull/bear 2.5x fund was +76% as of the close Wednesday (since Oct 20, 2008). Yesterday's push higher puts that closer to +121% I believe! It has yet to be verified by Timer Trac as they have not yet updated.
Any selling should be bought, and I see nothing but higher prices ahead for now. The daily MOM indicators did not qualify the run down to SPX 820 suggesting a nice run here is likely into the end of the month.
What would make me change my mind? If we went up too fast here over the next day or 2 and hit the 980+ level too quickly. That might make me rethink the timeframe.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Nov 13 PM Update
The Dow is now up over 432 points. Our Direxion Nasdaq 100 bull/bear trading model is now up over 100% since Oct 20th. This is verified by Timer Trac. We are now buy and hold awaiting a move back up to the 1072 area. This could take until Thanksgiving. If we hit that area on Monday/Tuesday then all bets are off for the latter date.
Nov 13 Mid Session Comments
Got back early. The SPX 820 area has held and now we see a huge rally into month's end in both stocks and mining shares. GDX fell below 18 today and is a screaming buy. My target for the SPX is 1064/1072 and GDX near 29 by or around Thanksgiving.
All our models went long as a fund trade the PM NAV close yesterday.
All our models went long as a fund trade the PM NAV close yesterday.
Nov 13 Pre-Market Commentary
This will be my only commentary today. Today is the full moon. Last full moon (Oct 14) the market topped. 80% of the time full moons are tops. Not this time. Full moons always reverse the prior trend going in. The larger 5 week cycle low is due in this general time frame. Today is day 24. Since Oct 10 we have seen a bottom 12 days out on Oct 28 on the new moon, and now 12 more days out we should see a bottom today.
The Equality of Waves Principle I talked about earlier suggests the bottom to be 107 S&P 500 points below the Tuesday top and that points to 819/20 for the final bottom. We are sufficiently oversold to warrant a huge bounce. As Roger Dodger on Traders-Talk has pointed out, the sentiment and tick figures almost match the Oct 9th figures. The next day, the market tagged a bottom.
The next expectation is for a rally back up to the top of the range and that would be in the 1050 area where the declining 50 day moving average is located. How long it takes to get there is another matter. The smaller 4/8 day cycle top is due Friday +/- one day. The larger 16 day cycle top is due somewhere between Nov 20th and Dec 2. The last 2 cycles ran 17 and then 15 days. The larger 13 week cycle is due no later than Nov 24. Jim Curry's work suggests we see a top around Nov 21-28 +/-.
The overall trend is still down into December. The current pattern has continuation written all over it. Curry sees a low between the second and third week of December. I'm inclined to believe we see it more toward the third week and then a strong rally in mid Feb based on the 23 week cycle and the gold mining shares.
The mining shares are currently in an uptrend that should last until the third week of December. We are currently coming into a strong seasonal period for the mining shares from the end of Nov to the end of Dec. Also, we have some chatter about the Comex being forced to buy more gold on the Dec contract starting Nov 28 because many may demand delivery and they may be short in the physical gold department.
Soon, I believe the mining shares will decouple from the stock market. From late Dec to mid Feb the cycle in the mining shares is down while the stock market cycle turns up.
My best guess is we see a top in the stock market anywhere between Nov 17 and Nov 28 near 1064/72 and then down hard to 788 SPX by the third week of Dec.
GDX (the mining share proxy ETF) is now in the $18 area and a move back to the $29 area is expected.
The Equality of Waves Principle I talked about earlier suggests the bottom to be 107 S&P 500 points below the Tuesday top and that points to 819/20 for the final bottom. We are sufficiently oversold to warrant a huge bounce. As Roger Dodger on Traders-Talk has pointed out, the sentiment and tick figures almost match the Oct 9th figures. The next day, the market tagged a bottom.
The next expectation is for a rally back up to the top of the range and that would be in the 1050 area where the declining 50 day moving average is located. How long it takes to get there is another matter. The smaller 4/8 day cycle top is due Friday +/- one day. The larger 16 day cycle top is due somewhere between Nov 20th and Dec 2. The last 2 cycles ran 17 and then 15 days. The larger 13 week cycle is due no later than Nov 24. Jim Curry's work suggests we see a top around Nov 21-28 +/-.
The overall trend is still down into December. The current pattern has continuation written all over it. Curry sees a low between the second and third week of December. I'm inclined to believe we see it more toward the third week and then a strong rally in mid Feb based on the 23 week cycle and the gold mining shares.
The mining shares are currently in an uptrend that should last until the third week of December. We are currently coming into a strong seasonal period for the mining shares from the end of Nov to the end of Dec. Also, we have some chatter about the Comex being forced to buy more gold on the Dec contract starting Nov 28 because many may demand delivery and they may be short in the physical gold department.
Soon, I believe the mining shares will decouple from the stock market. From late Dec to mid Feb the cycle in the mining shares is down while the stock market cycle turns up.
My best guess is we see a top in the stock market anywhere between Nov 17 and Nov 28 near 1064/72 and then down hard to 788 SPX by the third week of Dec.
GDX (the mining share proxy ETF) is now in the $18 area and a move back to the $29 area is expected.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Nov 12 PM Comments
Our ETF model went in too early: long at 893, the AM model at 883 but the PM model is getting the low or close. We are sufficiently oversold to warrant a huge bounce now. We have tagged SPX 857.
A low tomorrow on the full moon would reverse the trend higher and we may see a huge move up into Monday next week. Today or tomorrow could satisfy the 5 week low. We may see move up to the 1050's soon like early Monday.
A low tomorrow on the full moon would reverse the trend higher and we may see a huge move up into Monday next week. Today or tomorrow could satisfy the 5 week low. We may see move up to the 1050's soon like early Monday.
Nov 12, 2008 Mid Day Comment
Many of my daily momentum indicators are not confirming this latest move down. We should start seeing strength soon (I would think) and a move to 952 SPX looks to be in the cards by late Friday.
A move to SPX 850 looks likely by Tuesday next week.
We are long in our VST/ST model as well as the ST/IT model.
A large move up in mining shares looks to be coming into Friday from here. GDX could hit just under $25 Friday. GDX is now 20.65
SSRI in the 8's looks like it will go up into 11's by Friday.
A move to SPX 850 looks likely by Tuesday next week.
We are long in our VST/ST model as well as the ST/IT model.
A large move up in mining shares looks to be coming into Friday from here. GDX could hit just under $25 Friday. GDX is now 20.65
SSRI in the 8's looks like it will go up into 11's by Friday.
Nov 12 AM Addition
Our gold mining model just went to a buy for mutual funds at the PM NAV today. I see GDX going from the current 20.35 to above 24 by late Friday.
The stock market model is looking for 952 by late Friday. Currently we have briefly dipped below 870. We are long the RYDEX AM NAV and PM switchers can now go long today. We are long SPX 893 on the ETF's and nearer to 883 on the RYDEX AM model.
The stock market model is looking for 952 by late Friday. Currently we have briefly dipped below 870. We are long the RYDEX AM NAV and PM switchers can now go long today. We are long SPX 893 on the ETF's and nearer to 883 on the RYDEX AM model.
GDX, Gold Mining VST Long
Our VST trading model just went long GDX for a trade into early Thursday. This signal not good for mutual fund trading.
Nov 12, More Addition AM Open
I forgot to add that the SPX P/C Ratio divided by the OEX P/C ratio is now 1.67. Last Friday it was .44. I view this as slightly bullish, but not extreme, going along with my idea that we see a nice counter trend rally into perhaps Thursday or so. A move back to the 850/60 SPX area looks likely before we see a move back to the 1050 area, IMO. That cycle low (the 5 week or 27 day) is due to bottom around Monday or Tuesday next week. The 4 day likewise.
The 13 week top was due Nov 10, but can have a variance of 2 weeks +/-, suggesting a top around Nov 24 is possible. This fits in with Curry's work of a top between Nov 21-28. The 16 day cycle suggests a top on Nov 26, but last topped on day 15: Nov 4. All in all, I think we have some more down side after a brief counter trend rally here and then it looks good for a 5 day rally to the 1050/60 area after we come down to the 5 week low. 5 week lows average 27 days +/- 4 days and that ideal low is due Tuesday next week +/-.
My minimum upside target is now SPX 930 by early Thursday. We bought the gap down. If we hold 930 for the expected move up, a downside to below the Oct 10 low would be expected to near 827/31.
The 13 week top was due Nov 10, but can have a variance of 2 weeks +/-, suggesting a top around Nov 24 is possible. This fits in with Curry's work of a top between Nov 21-28. The 16 day cycle suggests a top on Nov 26, but last topped on day 15: Nov 4. All in all, I think we have some more down side after a brief counter trend rally here and then it looks good for a 5 day rally to the 1050/60 area after we come down to the 5 week low. 5 week lows average 27 days +/- 4 days and that ideal low is due Tuesday next week +/-.
My minimum upside target is now SPX 930 by early Thursday. We bought the gap down. If we hold 930 for the expected move up, a downside to below the Oct 10 low would be expected to near 827/31.
Nov 12, 2008 Pre- Market
We closed out a very profitable trade yesterday from shorting the open Monday to closing that short at the close Tuesday. That short represented 53 SPX points or 5.6% in 2 days. If we factor in the Direxion Bear 2.5X ETF that would amount to a whopping 14% in 2 days placing our Direxion trading up to a 91% gain since Oct 20.
Today our VST (very short term) model turns bullish and looks to be counter trend (the trend right now being down on the ST, IT, and LT). Cycles suggest a VST bottom today followed by an attempt to trade higher over the next couple of days. How high is anybody's guess but my best guess is back up to the 952 area or perhaps even into the 967 area SPX.
Our gold mining model is still in cash waiting for a better entry. I'm thinking GDX could go back up to the 24 area setting up a double top and a short (for those so inclined).
Today our VST (very short term) model turns bullish and looks to be counter trend (the trend right now being down on the ST, IT, and LT). Cycles suggest a VST bottom today followed by an attempt to trade higher over the next couple of days. How high is anybody's guess but my best guess is back up to the 952 area or perhaps even into the 967 area SPX.
Our gold mining model is still in cash waiting for a better entry. I'm thinking GDX could go back up to the 24 area setting up a double top and a short (for those so inclined).
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Nov 11 Pre-Close Comments
Our model is going to 100% cash at the close. There is a cycle top due either Thursday or Friday and we may continue slightly up from here before heading down once more into perhaps next Monday.
Nov 11 2008, AM Comments
The stock market continues to get hit this morning with the SPX down about 30 points. Our Direxion NASDAQ 2.5X bull/bear ST trading is now +92% since Oct 20, 2008! WOW!!!
GDX is falling into the 21 area and looks to be setting up a low late today or early tomorrow near 19.50/20.00. The mining shares are also about ready to give a nice ST buy signal.
Next update will be about 30 minutes before the close today.
GDX is falling into the 21 area and looks to be setting up a low late today or early tomorrow near 19.50/20.00. The mining shares are also about ready to give a nice ST buy signal.
Next update will be about 30 minutes before the close today.
Nov 11 Pre-Market Commentary
Our ST model shorted the stock market at the open Monday after closing out a day trade long on Friday. So far, it has been a profitable trade. Today, the stock market futures are pointing to still more down side on the open.
Cycles and waves point lower into late day today to early tomorrow for a low. If we sell-off dramatically near the close, we will cover shorts and begin initiating long positions for the expected rally into week's end.
We are oversold enough on some VST indicators to suggest a low is nigh. Cycle-wise, the bigger 2.5/5 week cycle low is due soon. The 4 day cycle is due late Wednesday, but has been coming in early as seen by the 4 day cycle top due late Monday and coming in early Monday.
Gold mining shares could see a nice ST low Wednesday and we may go long in the ST model then. The IT model is still in cash and will remain so until after we double top and come back down one more time next week.
Cycles and waves point lower into late day today to early tomorrow for a low. If we sell-off dramatically near the close, we will cover shorts and begin initiating long positions for the expected rally into week's end.
We are oversold enough on some VST indicators to suggest a low is nigh. Cycle-wise, the bigger 2.5/5 week cycle low is due soon. The 4 day cycle is due late Wednesday, but has been coming in early as seen by the 4 day cycle top due late Monday and coming in early Monday.
Gold mining shares could see a nice ST low Wednesday and we may go long in the ST model then. The IT model is still in cash and will remain so until after we double top and come back down one more time next week.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Nov 10th PM/Close Commentary
After opening higher, the stock market did sell off as expected today and the SPX was down as much as 18 points before closing with some strength on the close. Earlier on, it was up over 20 points.
The current pattern suggests more selling tomorrow and we may close out the short position at the close tomorrow and maybe initiate a long if things look right.
We are neutral gold mining shares right now awaiting a better set-up for our ST model. The IT model is still expected to be neutral until next week.
The current pattern suggests more selling tomorrow and we may close out the short position at the close tomorrow and maybe initiate a long if things look right.
We are neutral gold mining shares right now awaiting a better set-up for our ST model. The IT model is still expected to be neutral until next week.
Nov 10 AM Comments
Well, we had a nice pop on the open as expected Friday. The SPX tagged nearly 952, a little short of the 955/56 area, but close. My model has shorted the open or RYDEX AM NAV.
The GDX popped into the 23's as expected too. It tagged 23.71 and is pulling back. I'm still neutral this sector waiting for a best case scenario to form.
Now we wait to see the extent of the expected pull back of the stock market. Certainly I would expect the SPX 850 area to be tested in the next few days.
The GDX popped into the 23's as expected too. It tagged 23.71 and is pulling back. I'm still neutral this sector waiting for a best case scenario to form.
Now we wait to see the extent of the expected pull back of the stock market. Certainly I would expect the SPX 850 area to be tested in the next few days.
Nov 10 Pre-Market Comments
The gap up opening scenario I was looking for early this morning is coming to fruition as the futures are pointing to a strong opening. My minimum upside of 10 points look like is going to be exceeded on the SPX as we look forward to a move to perhaps the 955/56 area, which happens to be the 50% retracement area of the last wave down from Tues/Thurs last week (as some had noted on Traders-Talk this weekend).
That down wave, which I call wave 'a' of an a-b-c down move, was 107 points long. A similar wave 'c' from the current projection of 955/56 would place the next low somewhere between 848/849 in the coming days and fullfill the Equality of Waves Principle.
Targets are only that: targets. Timing is more important in my work. If the market gives us a higher point to short, that is only better for us. The wave -c- of this current wave 'b' (which we are now in) looks to run 1.5 X wave -a- of 'b', a perfect Fib relationship.
Our Timer Trac model went to cash on the close of the stock market and is shorting early strength this morning. Since October 20, my Timer Trac stock market trading model using the 2.5 Direxion ETF on the Nasdaq is up 67.66%. The GDX gold mining model is up about 28%.
Ideally, we should see a low in place over the next few days. A more perfect scenario would have that low tag Tuesday and a top on Thursday based on the full moon cycle. Based on cycle-time relationships to e-wave equalities, that could be skewed a bit and we could instead see a Wed-Fri rally, it remains to be seen.
The mining shares should have some strength today and GDX 23 would not surprise me. Ideally, the 4 day cycle does not top until early Tuesday, but the 4 day cycle can be off 1 day. I still expect a retest of the high set last week (over 24) sometime either late this week or early the next and then a strong pull back next week that should set us up for a stronger move up into later December.
That down wave, which I call wave 'a' of an a-b-c down move, was 107 points long. A similar wave 'c' from the current projection of 955/56 would place the next low somewhere between 848/849 in the coming days and fullfill the Equality of Waves Principle.
Targets are only that: targets. Timing is more important in my work. If the market gives us a higher point to short, that is only better for us. The wave -c- of this current wave 'b' (which we are now in) looks to run 1.5 X wave -a- of 'b', a perfect Fib relationship.
Our Timer Trac model went to cash on the close of the stock market and is shorting early strength this morning. Since October 20, my Timer Trac stock market trading model using the 2.5 Direxion ETF on the Nasdaq is up 67.66%. The GDX gold mining model is up about 28%.
Ideally, we should see a low in place over the next few days. A more perfect scenario would have that low tag Tuesday and a top on Thursday based on the full moon cycle. Based on cycle-time relationships to e-wave equalities, that could be skewed a bit and we could instead see a Wed-Fri rally, it remains to be seen.
The mining shares should have some strength today and GDX 23 would not surprise me. Ideally, the 4 day cycle does not top until early Tuesday, but the 4 day cycle can be off 1 day. I still expect a retest of the high set last week (over 24) sometime either late this week or early the next and then a strong pull back next week that should set us up for a stronger move up into later December.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Nov 8 Weekend Report
The late day strength on the stock market did not surprise me after selling off on the Obama speech. I posted on traders-talk that I was expecting late day strength about 30 minutes before the close. My Timer Trac signal closed out longs initiated at the RYDEX AM NAV Friday and closed those longs out to go to MMF (money market fund) with only a slight profit. My original thinking was to short the close, but I changed my mind in the last hour. If you went short the close, I believe you will be vindicated.
I'm looking for strength in the early going Monday with a target of SPX 941 based on the Equality of Waves Principle. The 4 day cycle top ideally occurs late Monday, but looks to occur early this time. I am shorting the AM RYDEX NAV Monday morning (10:30 EST).
Using e-wave principles, I believe we will see the final wave -c- down hard into Monday/Tuesday and possibly hit the 848/849 SPX target, wave -b- being this fake-out rally I believe we are in now. Since we are in a C wave of larger dimensions coming off the Tuesday top near 1004 (which was a B wave itself), -c- of C should be hard and fast and nearly as long if not longer than its predecessor -a-.
The overall look with e-waves and cycles examined suggests that after this current bout of selling is through, we should see a wave up with the strength of the Oct 10-14 rally. The full moon last topped on Oct 14th and we could easily see a repeat of that performance from Tuesday to Thursday next week with a possible slight variance of dates (that is like instead e.g., Monday to Wednesday).
This should set up a bear flat flag of larger proportion (a continuation pattern) with more downside expected to my target of 788 SPX (the March 2003 low). Ideally, this final low should occur around the 23 week cycle low projected for late Dec around just before XMAS.
The GDX ETF is looking like it could do one of two things: either fall into Nov 11 or rally into that date. A rally would set up for a short, a decline for a long. So for now I am neutral there. My best guess is we see some rally in the GDX early Monday followed by a sell-off into Tuesday and then a rally with the stock market into the full moon expected top Nov 13+/-. That should set up an irregular B Wave top in GDX and then a decline into the seasonal low due between Nov 17-21.
Overall, I expect the mining sector to bounce from those projected dates into an expected top just before XMAS. My target there is 38/39 from its low of just under 16 set on October 24, quite a potentially large move coming as we are now about $21 after tagging the $24 area in recent days with further weakness expected after this week.
Longer term, the stock market is about to put in an important bottom late this year, which should hold SPX 788 and rally toward my expected target of around 1590/1600 by Mar/Apr 2010. The mining shares have already put in their bottom around Oct 24/27, (IMO, at least with the blue chips in that sector), and the 8 year cycle projects higher into around Xmas and perhaps the first day of the New Year. From there we should see increasing focus on the stock market going up and selling in the mining shares into about mid February 2009.
What I'm saying is, we should soon see a decoupling soon of the mining shares with the stock market, with the gold and silver mining shares acting inversly to the stock market. The 8 year cycle in the mining shares suggests strength into about May/June 2010 from a higher low around mid/late Nov 2009. There is a strong surge expected from mid Feb to early/mid March 2009 and again from early April 2009 to about the third week of May. After that, an expected a-b-c type of decline into Nov 2009 should set up the strong Nov '09-May/June '10 rally I see coming.
The top I see in Mar/Apr 2010 in the stock market should set up a severe decline to SPX 443 expected by as early as July 2010/Oct 2010 to as late as Mar/May 2011. This should be the most severe decline since the 1929/32 depression crash that wiped out 89% of the value of the Dow Jones Industrials. Caveat Emptor!
I'm looking for strength in the early going Monday with a target of SPX 941 based on the Equality of Waves Principle. The 4 day cycle top ideally occurs late Monday, but looks to occur early this time. I am shorting the AM RYDEX NAV Monday morning (10:30 EST).
Using e-wave principles, I believe we will see the final wave -c- down hard into Monday/Tuesday and possibly hit the 848/849 SPX target, wave -b- being this fake-out rally I believe we are in now. Since we are in a C wave of larger dimensions coming off the Tuesday top near 1004 (which was a B wave itself), -c- of C should be hard and fast and nearly as long if not longer than its predecessor -a-.
The overall look with e-waves and cycles examined suggests that after this current bout of selling is through, we should see a wave up with the strength of the Oct 10-14 rally. The full moon last topped on Oct 14th and we could easily see a repeat of that performance from Tuesday to Thursday next week with a possible slight variance of dates (that is like instead e.g., Monday to Wednesday).
This should set up a bear flat flag of larger proportion (a continuation pattern) with more downside expected to my target of 788 SPX (the March 2003 low). Ideally, this final low should occur around the 23 week cycle low projected for late Dec around just before XMAS.
The GDX ETF is looking like it could do one of two things: either fall into Nov 11 or rally into that date. A rally would set up for a short, a decline for a long. So for now I am neutral there. My best guess is we see some rally in the GDX early Monday followed by a sell-off into Tuesday and then a rally with the stock market into the full moon expected top Nov 13+/-. That should set up an irregular B Wave top in GDX and then a decline into the seasonal low due between Nov 17-21.
Overall, I expect the mining sector to bounce from those projected dates into an expected top just before XMAS. My target there is 38/39 from its low of just under 16 set on October 24, quite a potentially large move coming as we are now about $21 after tagging the $24 area in recent days with further weakness expected after this week.
Longer term, the stock market is about to put in an important bottom late this year, which should hold SPX 788 and rally toward my expected target of around 1590/1600 by Mar/Apr 2010. The mining shares have already put in their bottom around Oct 24/27, (IMO, at least with the blue chips in that sector), and the 8 year cycle projects higher into around Xmas and perhaps the first day of the New Year. From there we should see increasing focus on the stock market going up and selling in the mining shares into about mid February 2009.
What I'm saying is, we should soon see a decoupling soon of the mining shares with the stock market, with the gold and silver mining shares acting inversly to the stock market. The 8 year cycle in the mining shares suggests strength into about May/June 2010 from a higher low around mid/late Nov 2009. There is a strong surge expected from mid Feb to early/mid March 2009 and again from early April 2009 to about the third week of May. After that, an expected a-b-c type of decline into Nov 2009 should set up the strong Nov '09-May/June '10 rally I see coming.
The top I see in Mar/Apr 2010 in the stock market should set up a severe decline to SPX 443 expected by as early as July 2010/Oct 2010 to as late as Mar/May 2011. This should be the most severe decline since the 1929/32 depression crash that wiped out 89% of the value of the Dow Jones Industrials. Caveat Emptor!
Friday, November 7, 2008
Late PM Nov 7
It has been a tough day, my Timer Trac signal is closing out longs on my ST signal and will short the AM NAV Monday, not today as I had previously thought. Gold stocks should rally into early Monday, but also look weak.
Nov 7 PM Post
My thinking now is concerned about the e-wave formation on the hourly chart for the stock market. It looks like an irregular bearish flat forming. My new Timer Trac trade will exit the stock market long at the RYDEX close today and go short. The daily is on a strong sell signal suggesting we may be seeing a false -b- wave here today. We may re-enter to the long side Monday or Tuesday. The 4 day cycle can run 3. The 8 day can run 10 days and we may be looking at a lower low in the next 2 days.
The full moon due Thursday next week may be the 13 week cycle top and would count 7 days off the Tuesday top, close enough to the expected 8 days top to top and 4 days from today.
Today looks like an inside day within the previous dark candle and we had no follow through. That really bothers me. Another thing is the SPX P/C ratio divided by the OEX P/C ratio which is at .44. The OEX players are buying puts 4.12/1 over calls and they tend to be very smart players.
No new signals for the XAU/GDX as I remain neutral there for now.
My thinking is for more down work ahead in the stock market and a possible test of the 850 SPX level.
The full moon due Thursday next week may be the 13 week cycle top and would count 7 days off the Tuesday top, close enough to the expected 8 days top to top and 4 days from today.
Today looks like an inside day within the previous dark candle and we had no follow through. That really bothers me. Another thing is the SPX P/C ratio divided by the OEX P/C ratio which is at .44. The OEX players are buying puts 4.12/1 over calls and they tend to be very smart players.
No new signals for the XAU/GDX as I remain neutral there for now.
My thinking is for more down work ahead in the stock market and a possible test of the 850 SPX level.
Nov 7 AM Post Pre- Market
My Timer Trac signal negated a long on the gold stocks on the long term LT GDX/XAU and ST GDX/XAU today, but covers the short position on open for the ST. We are in cash for gold stocks because of the overbought level on the daily and sell signal on the 4 hour. My thinking is we see an important low between Nov 13 and 17 there and I am content to wait for now for the expected large rally into the third week of Dec based on the 8 year cycle and seasonal factors.
My Timer Trac signal for the stock market index fund is covering shorts initiated early on Oct 29 (too soon, my goof) for both the LT and ST models and will close out for an expected profit on the RYDEX AM NAV trade portal at 10:30 EST Friday Nov 7. We have initiated a long at the RYDEX AM portal today for both the ST and LT models for an expected rally into perhaps Nov 11 next week.
The stock market 13 week cycle top is due late Nov 10. The 4 day cycle looks for Monday late +/- 1 day. A move to the 1020's SPX looks likely and then more sell-off is expected into the next expected low due around Nov 18/19.
The LT model is trading more often due to the volatility.
My Timer Trac signal for the stock market index fund is covering shorts initiated early on Oct 29 (too soon, my goof) for both the LT and ST models and will close out for an expected profit on the RYDEX AM NAV trade portal at 10:30 EST Friday Nov 7. We have initiated a long at the RYDEX AM portal today for both the ST and LT models for an expected rally into perhaps Nov 11 next week.
The stock market 13 week cycle top is due late Nov 10. The 4 day cycle looks for Monday late +/- 1 day. A move to the 1020's SPX looks likely and then more sell-off is expected into the next expected low due around Nov 18/19.
The LT model is trading more often due to the volatility.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Market Direction Down
The stock market trend right now is down for the VST (very short term). The ideal VST cycle low is due Friday this week Nov 7, but we could fall into Monday/Tuesday where there is also a Fibonacci turn due. Support is around SPX 848 SPX.
The longer term trend is still down, but bottoming (due to bottom in late December 2008). I have a LT target bottom of SPX 790/800 and then 1600 by March/April 2010!
The larger 13 week cycle top is due ideally early next week and we have a full moon due on Nov 13 where a top should occur up in the 1044/50 area on the SPX. Risk is defined as the 850 area.
Gold mining shares, while giving a strong buy signal on Oct 24/27, are surprising me with their strength. The overall trend is now up especially into about the third week of December. Seasonals are strong starting after or around Nov 17-21 (where a wave 2 cycle low should occur). Weakness may be expected as the stock market falls into its expected VST low, so beware. GDX target 18.81 Friday.
Cycles start to turn down from late Dec/early Jan to about mid Feb 2009. A large and heavy retracement of the mining shares is expected at that time, perhaps taking out as much as 70% of the expected gains into Dec 2008.
The longer term trend is still down, but bottoming (due to bottom in late December 2008). I have a LT target bottom of SPX 790/800 and then 1600 by March/April 2010!
The larger 13 week cycle top is due ideally early next week and we have a full moon due on Nov 13 where a top should occur up in the 1044/50 area on the SPX. Risk is defined as the 850 area.
Gold mining shares, while giving a strong buy signal on Oct 24/27, are surprising me with their strength. The overall trend is now up especially into about the third week of December. Seasonals are strong starting after or around Nov 17-21 (where a wave 2 cycle low should occur). Weakness may be expected as the stock market falls into its expected VST low, so beware. GDX target 18.81 Friday.
Cycles start to turn down from late Dec/early Jan to about mid Feb 2009. A large and heavy retracement of the mining shares is expected at that time, perhaps taking out as much as 70% of the expected gains into Dec 2008.
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