After opening higher, the stock market did sell off as expected today and the SPX was down as much as 18 points before closing with some strength on the close. Earlier on, it was up over 20 points.
The current pattern suggests more selling tomorrow and we may close out the short position at the close tomorrow and maybe initiate a long if things look right.
We are neutral gold mining shares right now awaiting a better set-up for our ST model. The IT model is still expected to be neutral until next week.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Nov 10 AM Comments
Well, we had a nice pop on the open as expected Friday. The SPX tagged nearly 952, a little short of the 955/56 area, but close. My model has shorted the open or RYDEX AM NAV.
The GDX popped into the 23's as expected too. It tagged 23.71 and is pulling back. I'm still neutral this sector waiting for a best case scenario to form.
Now we wait to see the extent of the expected pull back of the stock market. Certainly I would expect the SPX 850 area to be tested in the next few days.
The GDX popped into the 23's as expected too. It tagged 23.71 and is pulling back. I'm still neutral this sector waiting for a best case scenario to form.
Now we wait to see the extent of the expected pull back of the stock market. Certainly I would expect the SPX 850 area to be tested in the next few days.
Nov 10 Pre-Market Comments
The gap up opening scenario I was looking for early this morning is coming to fruition as the futures are pointing to a strong opening. My minimum upside of 10 points look like is going to be exceeded on the SPX as we look forward to a move to perhaps the 955/56 area, which happens to be the 50% retracement area of the last wave down from Tues/Thurs last week (as some had noted on Traders-Talk this weekend).
That down wave, which I call wave 'a' of an a-b-c down move, was 107 points long. A similar wave 'c' from the current projection of 955/56 would place the next low somewhere between 848/849 in the coming days and fullfill the Equality of Waves Principle.
Targets are only that: targets. Timing is more important in my work. If the market gives us a higher point to short, that is only better for us. The wave -c- of this current wave 'b' (which we are now in) looks to run 1.5 X wave -a- of 'b', a perfect Fib relationship.
Our Timer Trac model went to cash on the close of the stock market and is shorting early strength this morning. Since October 20, my Timer Trac stock market trading model using the 2.5 Direxion ETF on the Nasdaq is up 67.66%. The GDX gold mining model is up about 28%.
Ideally, we should see a low in place over the next few days. A more perfect scenario would have that low tag Tuesday and a top on Thursday based on the full moon cycle. Based on cycle-time relationships to e-wave equalities, that could be skewed a bit and we could instead see a Wed-Fri rally, it remains to be seen.
The mining shares should have some strength today and GDX 23 would not surprise me. Ideally, the 4 day cycle does not top until early Tuesday, but the 4 day cycle can be off 1 day. I still expect a retest of the high set last week (over 24) sometime either late this week or early the next and then a strong pull back next week that should set us up for a stronger move up into later December.
That down wave, which I call wave 'a' of an a-b-c down move, was 107 points long. A similar wave 'c' from the current projection of 955/56 would place the next low somewhere between 848/849 in the coming days and fullfill the Equality of Waves Principle.
Targets are only that: targets. Timing is more important in my work. If the market gives us a higher point to short, that is only better for us. The wave -c- of this current wave 'b' (which we are now in) looks to run 1.5 X wave -a- of 'b', a perfect Fib relationship.
Our Timer Trac model went to cash on the close of the stock market and is shorting early strength this morning. Since October 20, my Timer Trac stock market trading model using the 2.5 Direxion ETF on the Nasdaq is up 67.66%. The GDX gold mining model is up about 28%.
Ideally, we should see a low in place over the next few days. A more perfect scenario would have that low tag Tuesday and a top on Thursday based on the full moon cycle. Based on cycle-time relationships to e-wave equalities, that could be skewed a bit and we could instead see a Wed-Fri rally, it remains to be seen.
The mining shares should have some strength today and GDX 23 would not surprise me. Ideally, the 4 day cycle does not top until early Tuesday, but the 4 day cycle can be off 1 day. I still expect a retest of the high set last week (over 24) sometime either late this week or early the next and then a strong pull back next week that should set us up for a stronger move up into later December.
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