Nov 28, 2008 Pre Market Update

All I'm seeing suggests we are near an important short term top time-wise for the stock market. I have been looking for a top around Nov 26-Dec 1 with a leaning toward Nov 28 +/-. We have a new moon Thanksgiving and the day after, and full & new moons typically are important reversal points for the stock market, especially in choppy markets as we have seen.

My best guess is we see an important top Dec 1 and then a slide toward mid December around Dec 15 +/- 3/4 days (with more emphasis on the mid to latter dates than earlier). Same goes for gold stocks. The stock market should ideally see a new low on the next move down, but the gold stocks should hold to a higher bottom and then make a higher high around Dec 22 +/- topping out ideally for this cycle and then moving lower into mid Feb (especially after New Years).

Since late October I have favored the gold mining shares over the stock market and so far this prognostication has proven correct. A move back to the 19 area by mid Dec for GDX looks likely following a top in the 25 area (which I have been looking for) or perhaps a little higher.

I keep saying that the markets are no longer a buy and hold market, but a trader's market and nothing has changed my mind so far. This is true even for the gold mining sector (even tho' I believe we made the low in gold stocks near Oct 24/27, at least with the majors). The markets ahead look more volatile and choppy than ever and this makes trading (even over several weeks to months) a more viable option than buying and holding.

Thanksgiving

The SPX rallied 30 points Wed to 887. We may have 2 days left until the top.

Gold stocks rallied a little and may be losing steam suggesting a 'b' wave top coming with 'c' to the downside and followed by one final wave up into about Dec 22.

Happy Thanksgiving