I believe we just saw the bottom with the SPX down about 10-11 points after reversing the gap up earlier. This is exactly what I was looking for and is a very bullish sign based on the fractal of Oct 28, 2008. We should ideally see a top now around the end of the day Dec 1, 2008, all things being equal with an outside chance at early Dec 2, 2008. Could we top a little earlier? Sure.
Gold mining shares are exploding as gold and silver are exploding upward today. I am very bullish on this sector into just before XMAS. Backwardation and seasonal statistics are suggesting a huge explosion upward for the metals and this sector I have favored (and continue to favor) over the stock market since Oct 24. Overall, this sector looks ST bullish into Dec 2, 2008 and IT bullish into around Dec 22, 2008 and Jan 2, 2009, then IT bearish into mid February. LT cycles continue higher into at least 2010, and then 2012 after that.
Friday, November 21, 2008
Nov 21, 2008 Market Commentary
The last 2 day slide did not surprise me as I have been looking for a bottom this week (27 day cycle low due Nov. 18, +/- 3.5 days) What surprised me (and others no doubt) was the severity of the slide. Now that I believe we have seen the ST bottom (or close as we may gap up, turn around rebottom and then go higher) the next expectation is to rally strongly back to the 50 day moving average, currently just above SPX 1000 and falling.
As far as time cycles are considered the cycle we must look to would be the 16 day cycle top and that is due ideally Nov 26. Last time it ran 15 days and before that 17 days. The 16 day cycle can run 20 days and that date is Dec 3rd. The 8 day cycle tops Nov 16, but can run about 10 days and that date is Dec 1.
Seasonally, we are due for a Thanksgiving rally. E-Wave wise, I believe we have or are just about to finish wave X (wave W up, Wave X down, wave Y up) of a bearish B Wave, Wave A (a double three a-b-c x a-b-c) having finished on Oct 10 and Wave C due ideally between the second and third week of December.
The 23 week cycle ran 22 weeks into Jan 2008 (adjusting for Holidays 110 days), 25 weeks in July 2008 and now due between mid/Dec and early January. The larger 18 year cycle low is due around Jan 12, 2009. As far as the 13 week cycle top, I believe now that we saw that on Nov 4 and it came 4 days early (as it was due ideally on Nov 10).
The overall pattern of a lower low than the Oct 2002 low and an intermediate top in Oct 2007 higher than the March 2000 top (on the SPX, an apparant irregular flat)) sets us up for a huge rally to new highs into the first quarter of 2010 where Benner's Cycle is suggesting we see a top. Benner's Cycle also suggests we see a bottom around 2011. The last Benner Cycle low in this series was due in 1995 and bottomed late 1994. The next one was due 2003 and bottomed late 2002. It may be suggesting a huge down move for 2010 from near 1595/1600 toward my longstanding target of SPX 443 perhaps by July/Oct 2010.
I guess what I'm saying is : "You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet".
Oh, and on the subject of new and full moon reversals, the next new moon is due on Thanksgiving and this time looks to be a top. The last full moon was a bottom, the new moon before that a bottom and Oct 14th a top for the full moon.
My gold mining model suggested a seasonal low around the 13-21 of Nov and higher prices into the third week of Dec and maybe a final top around the first day of Jan 2009. I have liked the gold mining shares over the stock market believing we saw the low in mining shares on Oct 24/27. My IT and LT cycles in the stock market are still pointing down, but we are overdue for wave Y of B where I think it would be prudent to short again once we tag the 50 day moving average within the next 3-6 trading days, today inclusive. Dec 1, 2008 would be the ideal date for a top as I see it right now.
As far as time cycles are considered the cycle we must look to would be the 16 day cycle top and that is due ideally Nov 26. Last time it ran 15 days and before that 17 days. The 16 day cycle can run 20 days and that date is Dec 3rd. The 8 day cycle tops Nov 16, but can run about 10 days and that date is Dec 1.
Seasonally, we are due for a Thanksgiving rally. E-Wave wise, I believe we have or are just about to finish wave X (wave W up, Wave X down, wave Y up) of a bearish B Wave, Wave A (a double three a-b-c x a-b-c) having finished on Oct 10 and Wave C due ideally between the second and third week of December.
The 23 week cycle ran 22 weeks into Jan 2008 (adjusting for Holidays 110 days), 25 weeks in July 2008 and now due between mid/Dec and early January. The larger 18 year cycle low is due around Jan 12, 2009. As far as the 13 week cycle top, I believe now that we saw that on Nov 4 and it came 4 days early (as it was due ideally on Nov 10).
The overall pattern of a lower low than the Oct 2002 low and an intermediate top in Oct 2007 higher than the March 2000 top (on the SPX, an apparant irregular flat)) sets us up for a huge rally to new highs into the first quarter of 2010 where Benner's Cycle is suggesting we see a top. Benner's Cycle also suggests we see a bottom around 2011. The last Benner Cycle low in this series was due in 1995 and bottomed late 1994. The next one was due 2003 and bottomed late 2002. It may be suggesting a huge down move for 2010 from near 1595/1600 toward my longstanding target of SPX 443 perhaps by July/Oct 2010.
I guess what I'm saying is : "You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet".
Oh, and on the subject of new and full moon reversals, the next new moon is due on Thanksgiving and this time looks to be a top. The last full moon was a bottom, the new moon before that a bottom and Oct 14th a top for the full moon.
My gold mining model suggested a seasonal low around the 13-21 of Nov and higher prices into the third week of Dec and maybe a final top around the first day of Jan 2009. I have liked the gold mining shares over the stock market believing we saw the low in mining shares on Oct 24/27. My IT and LT cycles in the stock market are still pointing down, but we are overdue for wave Y of B where I think it would be prudent to short again once we tag the 50 day moving average within the next 3-6 trading days, today inclusive. Dec 1, 2008 would be the ideal date for a top as I see it right now.
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