Our ETF model went in too early: long at 893, the AM model at 883 but the PM model is getting the low or close. We are sufficiently oversold to warrant a huge bounce now. We have tagged SPX 857.
A low tomorrow on the full moon would reverse the trend higher and we may see a huge move up into Monday next week. Today or tomorrow could satisfy the 5 week low. We may see move up to the 1050's soon like early Monday.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Nov 12, 2008 Mid Day Comment
Many of my daily momentum indicators are not confirming this latest move down. We should start seeing strength soon (I would think) and a move to 952 SPX looks to be in the cards by late Friday.
A move to SPX 850 looks likely by Tuesday next week.
We are long in our VST/ST model as well as the ST/IT model.
A large move up in mining shares looks to be coming into Friday from here. GDX could hit just under $25 Friday. GDX is now 20.65
SSRI in the 8's looks like it will go up into 11's by Friday.
A move to SPX 850 looks likely by Tuesday next week.
We are long in our VST/ST model as well as the ST/IT model.
A large move up in mining shares looks to be coming into Friday from here. GDX could hit just under $25 Friday. GDX is now 20.65
SSRI in the 8's looks like it will go up into 11's by Friday.
Nov 12 AM Addition
Our gold mining model just went to a buy for mutual funds at the PM NAV today. I see GDX going from the current 20.35 to above 24 by late Friday.
The stock market model is looking for 952 by late Friday. Currently we have briefly dipped below 870. We are long the RYDEX AM NAV and PM switchers can now go long today. We are long SPX 893 on the ETF's and nearer to 883 on the RYDEX AM model.
The stock market model is looking for 952 by late Friday. Currently we have briefly dipped below 870. We are long the RYDEX AM NAV and PM switchers can now go long today. We are long SPX 893 on the ETF's and nearer to 883 on the RYDEX AM model.
GDX, Gold Mining VST Long
Our VST trading model just went long GDX for a trade into early Thursday. This signal not good for mutual fund trading.
Nov 12, More Addition AM Open
I forgot to add that the SPX P/C Ratio divided by the OEX P/C ratio is now 1.67. Last Friday it was .44. I view this as slightly bullish, but not extreme, going along with my idea that we see a nice counter trend rally into perhaps Thursday or so. A move back to the 850/60 SPX area looks likely before we see a move back to the 1050 area, IMO. That cycle low (the 5 week or 27 day) is due to bottom around Monday or Tuesday next week. The 4 day likewise.
The 13 week top was due Nov 10, but can have a variance of 2 weeks +/-, suggesting a top around Nov 24 is possible. This fits in with Curry's work of a top between Nov 21-28. The 16 day cycle suggests a top on Nov 26, but last topped on day 15: Nov 4. All in all, I think we have some more down side after a brief counter trend rally here and then it looks good for a 5 day rally to the 1050/60 area after we come down to the 5 week low. 5 week lows average 27 days +/- 4 days and that ideal low is due Tuesday next week +/-.
My minimum upside target is now SPX 930 by early Thursday. We bought the gap down. If we hold 930 for the expected move up, a downside to below the Oct 10 low would be expected to near 827/31.
The 13 week top was due Nov 10, but can have a variance of 2 weeks +/-, suggesting a top around Nov 24 is possible. This fits in with Curry's work of a top between Nov 21-28. The 16 day cycle suggests a top on Nov 26, but last topped on day 15: Nov 4. All in all, I think we have some more down side after a brief counter trend rally here and then it looks good for a 5 day rally to the 1050/60 area after we come down to the 5 week low. 5 week lows average 27 days +/- 4 days and that ideal low is due Tuesday next week +/-.
My minimum upside target is now SPX 930 by early Thursday. We bought the gap down. If we hold 930 for the expected move up, a downside to below the Oct 10 low would be expected to near 827/31.
Nov 12, 2008 Pre- Market
We closed out a very profitable trade yesterday from shorting the open Monday to closing that short at the close Tuesday. That short represented 53 SPX points or 5.6% in 2 days. If we factor in the Direxion Bear 2.5X ETF that would amount to a whopping 14% in 2 days placing our Direxion trading up to a 91% gain since Oct 20.
Today our VST (very short term) model turns bullish and looks to be counter trend (the trend right now being down on the ST, IT, and LT). Cycles suggest a VST bottom today followed by an attempt to trade higher over the next couple of days. How high is anybody's guess but my best guess is back up to the 952 area or perhaps even into the 967 area SPX.
Our gold mining model is still in cash waiting for a better entry. I'm thinking GDX could go back up to the 24 area setting up a double top and a short (for those so inclined).
Today our VST (very short term) model turns bullish and looks to be counter trend (the trend right now being down on the ST, IT, and LT). Cycles suggest a VST bottom today followed by an attempt to trade higher over the next couple of days. How high is anybody's guess but my best guess is back up to the 952 area or perhaps even into the 967 area SPX.
Our gold mining model is still in cash waiting for a better entry. I'm thinking GDX could go back up to the 24 area setting up a double top and a short (for those so inclined).
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