Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Nov 12, More Addition AM Open

I forgot to add that the SPX P/C Ratio divided by the OEX P/C ratio is now 1.67. Last Friday it was .44. I view this as slightly bullish, but not extreme, going along with my idea that we see a nice counter trend rally into perhaps Thursday or so. A move back to the 850/60 SPX area looks likely before we see a move back to the 1050 area, IMO. That cycle low (the 5 week or 27 day) is due to bottom around Monday or Tuesday next week. The 4 day likewise.

The 13 week top was due Nov 10, but can have a variance of 2 weeks +/-, suggesting a top around Nov 24 is possible. This fits in with Curry's work of a top between Nov 21-28. The 16 day cycle suggests a top on Nov 26, but last topped on day 15: Nov 4. All in all, I think we have some more down side after a brief counter trend rally here and then it looks good for a 5 day rally to the 1050/60 area after we come down to the 5 week low. 5 week lows average 27 days +/- 4 days and that ideal low is due Tuesday next week +/-.

My minimum upside target is now SPX 930 by early Thursday. We bought the gap down. If we hold 930 for the expected move up, a downside to below the Oct 10 low would be expected to near 827/31.