Nov 29, 2008 Weekend Report

The stock market looks like it has one more good day to the up side Monday. As I had been stating for over a week, I have been looking for top in this general time frame between Nov 26 and Dec 1. How high we go is uniportant at this point because we will be exiting our long position and initiating a short position at the close Monday.

Ideally, we tag the SPX down trend line near 970 and/or the 50 day moving average just below that point about 5 SPX points. This would be one heck of a rally Monday that's for sure if it happens! I think a minimum of about 940 is on the table, but I will not rule out a bigger blow-off rally.

How low we go on the next move is just conjecture at this point, but suffice it to say a move to the 680/703 level is not out of the question. When? By around Dec 15-18 would be my best guess at this time.

Next we look at the gold miners. A few weeks ago I surmised the next move would take GDX above its previous top in the 24/25 area set Nov 5. GDX is now in the 26/27 area.

The gold miners look tired here, so I will also be shorting this sector at the close Monday too, however, some of the silver shares like SSRI and especially SLW look like they might play catch up Monday so watch those shares.

As of the close Wed from Oct 23, 2008 to the present, the Profunds Precious Metals Long/Short Fund trading is +108% vs. -2% for the S&P 500 and +48% for the buy and hold XAU model. RYDEX Precious Metals buy long only model is +60% vs +48% for the buy and hold XAU model.

From Oct 20, 2008 to the present (Nov 26) the Direxion 2.5X NASDAQ 100 Bull/Bear ETF fund trading is +70% vs. -10% for the SPX buy and hold model, +57% for the RYDEX 2X bull/bear fund trading and +32% for the straight SPX bull/bear trading.

Just plug in your own trading model/vehicle and see how well you would have done!