Market Direction Down

The stock market trend right now is down for the VST (very short term). The ideal VST cycle low is due Friday this week Nov 7, but we could fall into Monday/Tuesday where there is also a Fibonacci turn due. Support is around SPX 848 SPX.

The longer term trend is still down, but bottoming (due to bottom in late December 2008). I have a LT target bottom of SPX 790/800 and then 1600 by March/April 2010!



The larger 13 week cycle top is due ideally early next week and we have a full moon due on Nov 13 where a top should occur up in the 1044/50 area on the SPX. Risk is defined as the 850 area.

Gold mining shares, while giving a strong buy signal on Oct 24/27, are surprising me with their strength. The overall trend is now up especially into about the third week of December. Seasonals are strong starting after or around Nov 17-21 (where a wave 2 cycle low should occur). Weakness may be expected as the stock market falls into its expected VST low, so beware. GDX target 18.81 Friday.

Cycles start to turn down from late Dec/early Jan to about mid Feb 2009. A large and heavy retracement of the mining shares is expected at that time, perhaps taking out as much as 70% of the expected gains into Dec 2008.